E-14: Are we there, yet...?
We are officially in Federal Election zombie-land
We’ve all been there. Long car rides, or journeys, where we’re not in the driver seat. We just want to know the essential question: are we there yet?
Often the answer isn’t one that will bring any relief or solace to the questioner.
“Only six more hours!”
In this case, it’s only 14 more days! That’s only a fortnight (#okboomer).
Two weeks from today is election day. If you’re tired of it, I feel you. Especially with such a media and social media-rich environment, and the non-stop Tariff-and-maybe-but-hopefully-not?-Recession whiplash coming out of the general area of the Potomac River in D.C., and increasingly from Zhongnanhai in Beijing.
There’s a rhythm to an election campaign, from a media coverage standpoint anyway.
The coverage is breathless, and comes hard and fast, out of the starting gate. Lots of stories, angles, in-depth pieces from kitchen tables and rural sawmills and the morning meet-ups of retirees at McDonald’s…some horse-race stories and the fate-of-this-party-or-that-party (or this senior strategist or that one), and then slowly — but not in such a way that it’s admitted, it’s just accepted with a silent nod — the coverage switches back for a time to whatever else is happening in the world.
But this week it’s time for THE DEBATES.
Some people believe that the televised debates are a chance for a leader to really stand out.
For someone to cement their lead (Carney), slip on the banana peel (Carney), change how people see them and wrestle back the momentum (Poilievre), or do something - anything! - to get noticed and possibly not get taken to the electoral woodshed on April 28th (Singh, Blanchet & Pedneault).
Or, are they? Former Conservative Cabinet Minister James Moore makes a solid argument in a piece for CTV news that Leader’s debates just don’t matter that much. Things that are baked-in, are already baked-in by this point in a campaign. And I think he’s largely right.
But, still, for political junkies, the Leader’s Debates are a little like a Super Bowl half-time show, that only happens once every three or four years.
Lots will be made of the nascent quality of Mark Carney’s French language skills during the first of the two debates, April 16th. But, to be honest, this banana peel just doesn’t seem to have slipped him up so far. He performed decently during the “cinq chefs” special on Radio-Canada a few weeks ago. Last night, Carney and Poilievre both seemed to do fine on “Toute le Monde En Parle” - a show credited in part with vaulting Jack Layton and the NDP from third-to-first in Quebec during the 2011 Federal Election…and also into Stormont as Leader of the Official Opposition, before his tragic death from cancer. (Note the first two links are in English as summaries of the CC and TLMEP episodes, and the last one around Layton’s performance is in French).
But it’s unlikely that Singh, Blanchet or Pedneault will get any kind of significant bounce from their TLMEP appearances.
The NDP, it seems, can’t catch a break these days. And that’s a big electoral problem for both the Conservatives, and NDP.
For the Conservatives, it’s the difference between a chance at forming government and remaining stuck around the ~120 mark in seat count. For the NDP, it’s a little more existential…as the party flirts with losing official party status - pollster Nik Nanos’ most recent polling suggests this is a real risk for the party.
Singing a sad song
I don’t know about the sonorousness of Jagmeet Singh’s voice, but this classic from 1985 bears some striking resemblance to the NDP’s revised pitch to voters, which goes something like this.
hey folx, we’re right here. We’ve been here all along, and we’ll still be here even if you don’t vote for us, but since we’ve really done a lot for you we really hope you don’t…forget about us:
And, hey, we get it. You’re scared of the POTUS and a trade war and your job, and house and maybe even our safety. You’re worried about our sovereignty and all that big picture stuff. So are we, for sure. And we know you don’t like Poilievre (neither do we, we really, really don’t, and we promise we won’t support or work with him!). But, if we can ask one little thing — just one thing — please don’t do the whole strategic voting thing and go red and leave the NDP with a tiny handful of MPs who can’t stand up for you like we have (as Tom Petty would implore…):
Ok, it wasn’t quite that faux-millennial text streamy, or that pop or folk music-y.
The night before a speech at the annual Broadbent Institute Progress Summit - taking place a few blocks from the former Manning (as in, Preston Manning) Conference, now known as the Canada Strong and Free Network Conference - the NDP released a new campaign ad. Pivoting from the decades-old (and serially-ineffective) ad copy which basically does a Liberal-Tory, Same-old-Story theme, the campaign pivoted to a closing argument style ad…in an attempt to gain some traction in this disappointing campaign for it so far.
Here’s the NDP ad, in its entirety:
You’ll notice that the statute of Jack Layton as the proverbial angel on Singh’s shoulder plays a prominent role in the ad. The party is hoping for some kind of divine intervention to help improve its fortunes in the closing days of the campaign.
And so are the Conservatives - who spent millions spiking Singh’s negatives in 2024…and must be living to regret that decision now.
For good measure, and balance, here are some of the more prominent Conservative and Liberal ads from the campaign. This Liberal attack ad ties Poilievre to Trump — something his party is desperate to avoid as the POTUS remains deeply unpopular in Canada, and is credited with the rebound in Liberal electoral fortunes.
The Conservative Party has been outspending the Liberals and NDP massively on Ads for years preceding the writ drop in March.
These ads, from about a year ago, featuring Poilievre’s wife Ana, are still among the best rated ads about the Conservative Leader - who has become a victim of his own success as Prosecutor-in-Chief, when Canadians are looking for something different.
Who believes the Polls, anyway?
Election denialism isn’t something that normally features in Canadian contests, notwithstanding its significant presence in the US - most notably in 2021.
But last week Conservative campaign rallies featured the ‘green shoots’ of election denialism by attempting to sew doubts about the veracity of the polls. The very same polls, and polling consensus, that gave the Conservatives a 25-point lead as recently as January 26th.
Ahem.
This display brought more than a few rebukes, and some mocking.
The rebukes were led by poll analysts Eric Grenier and Phillipe J. Fournier (the man behind polling aggregator 338Canada) during Grenier’s Podcast, the Numbers.
In addition, some of the mocking came chiefly not from Liberals, New Democrats or other non-Conservatives…but long-time Conservative strategist, and Doug Ford Campaign Manager, Kory Teneycke; who seems to be doubling, even tripling, down on his criticism of “campaign malpractice” by the Conservatives.
During a spirited performance on the Curse of Politics Podcast last Thursday, April 10th, Teneycke said “…you know who questions the Polls: Losers”.
Ouch.
Below, Teneycke explains his concerns in more detail (and ensures he’ll never get an invite to a Jenny Byrne social function in this lifetime, or the next) to CTV Powerplay host Vassy Kapelos. This piece on Jenny Byrne, in the formerly-formidable MacLean’s magazine, is quite a good read - or listen - by the way.
A number of Business leaders, seemingly underwhelmed at the prospect that a fresh Carney Prime Ministership from 2025-29 will reverse the GDP challenges that the country faced under Trudeau’s government, are speaking out. The co-founder of Blackberry, among other things, Jim Balsillie penned this piece in the Globe and Mail: Opinion: Mark Carney will not make Canada more prosperous
Over the weekend, this ad appeared in newspapers across the country, signed by a number of business leaders. It might be a bit glib to note that there are a significant number of “former” before the titles (impressive, all of them) listed among the signatories in the ad; but, still, notable.
To close - a few interesting reads & listens:
If you’re curious about who’s behind the Conservative and Liberal campaigns, this Globe and Mail piece outlines the players.
This Herle Burly podcast is a rare glimpse into the inner workings of ad campaigns (aka. The Air War) with his “Election Ad Review” featuring David Rosenberg, Dennis Matthews and Éric Blais. They discuss the overall strategies of various campaigns, specific ads, and the overall tone and tenor of the campaign from the Air War.
#Election45